Mathematical models and the coronavirus, COVID-19
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Currently, there are several mathematical models that have been developed to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. However, the difference in the sociocultural contexts between countries requires the specific adjustment of these estimates to each scenario. This article analyses the main elements used for the construction of models from epidemiological patterns, to describe the interaction, explain the dynamics of infection and recovery, and to predict possible scenarios that may arise with the introduction of public health measures such as social distancing and quarantines, specifically in the case of the pandemic unleashed by the new SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 virus.
Comment: Mathematical models are highly relevant for making objective and effective decisions to control and eradicate the disease. These models used for COVID-19 have supported and will continue to provide information for the selection and implementation of programs and public policies that prevent associated complications, reduce the speed of the virus spread and minimize the occurrence of severe cases of the disease that may collapse health systems.
- COVID-19
- Viral Antibodies
- Viral Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
- pandemic
- mathematical models
- quarantine
- Social isolation
Luis Eduardo Bravo Ocaña, Universidad del Valle. Cali, Colombia
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Professor Emeritus of pathologyand Epidemiology at Universidad del Valle, Colombia for the last 25 years.
Director of the Population based Cancer Registry of Cali sice 2001, has dedicated his efforts to researching cancer , especially gastric cancer and its relationship with Helicobacter pylory.
Regional Representative of International Association of cancer Registries (IARCR) for Latin American. 2018-2022.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-0312
Rodrigo Guerrero, Universidad del Valle. Cali, Colombia
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MD graduated from the Universidad del Valle, Master in Epidemiology and PhD in Public Health from Harvard University. He is an expert in Violence Prevention. Elected mayor of Cali on two occasions. As a university professor, he has held various administrative positions such as Dean of the Faculty of Health and Rector of Universidad del Valle. He was Director of the Hospital Universitario del Valle. and director of the Carvajal Foundation. He has been a Consultant on multiple occasions at the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank and other international organizations. Founding member of VallenPaz, an NGO dedicated to rural development in conflict areas.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4683-7987Julián Santaella-Tenorio, Universidad del Valle. Cali, Colombia. Universidad Javeriana, Cali
Veterinary doctor with master's and doctorate studies in epidemiology. Julian has worked in research on transmission of infectious agents from animals to humans. In the last 10 years, he has investigated the prevention of violence and injuries, mental health and the consumption of psychoactive substances in the population. He is currently a professor and coordinator of the Master of Clinical Epidemiology at the Universidad Javeriana, professor at the School of Public Health at the Universidad del Valle and consultant to the Center for Opioid Epidemiology and Policy at NYU Langone
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